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Fears over hidden COVID-19 outbreak in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria

Number of cases may far exceed official figures amid claims of quarantining by non-state actors

Health and other officials focused on Lebanon, Iraq and Syria fear the numbers of people infected with coronavirus far exceed the official figures disclosed by all three governments and claim non-state actors are quarantining entire communities of patients in areas outside state control.

Officials, including bureaucrats, aid workers, and international observers, who spoke with the Guardian over the past week say parts of Lebanon and Iraq, in particular, are likely to be holding thousands more infected people, and that a lack of disclosure poses a serious health risk over the next three months.

They also claim coronavirus patients are being housed and guarded by political groups in central and southern Iraq and southern Lebanon. An even worse scenario is thought to be unfolding in Syria, where weak state structures, an internally displaced population of 7 million, and the fact large chunks of the country remain outside central government control make controlling the spread of the virus almost impossible.

Ground and air links between all three countries have been largely severed, but there are deepening concerns that large numbers of virus carriers were able to return before borders were sealed in mid-March.

Returnees to Lebanon had arrived from all over the world, with a priest traveling from Italy thought to be responsible for one cluster, and travelers from Milan and London for others. However, the focus of concern has been on arrivals from the Iranian city of Qom, to where the biggest regional outbreak has been sourced.

Large numbers of Iraqi and Lebanese people, including religious pilgrims and merchants, had been in Qom as the crisis escalated and were gradually brought back by bus and plane to Baghdad and Beirut, where only small numbers of patients from their communities are being treated in public hospitals.